The president will carry Pennsylvania and prevail in the election, according to Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research.
The Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly is an outlier among pollsters in that he thinks President Trump will carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, or both, and hence be reelected with roughly 280 electoral votes. (I explained his thinking here.) Last week another pollster, Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research, echoed some of Cahaly’s points about shy Trump voters being missed by pollsters. “There is definitely a submerged Trump vote,” Lee said. Asked for a prediction, he hedged a little but then predicted a Trump win: “I can’t call it. If the turnout is going to be what I think, Trump wins it.”
Lee goes further than some other analysts in suggesting that pollsters may be deliberately overstating the strength of Democratic candidates in order to dampen Republican turnout. In this press release, he calls it “the very definition of ‘voter suppression’” for a poll, by Franklin & Marshall College, to claim Hillary Clinton was ahead by eleven points among likely voters in surveys taken from October 26–30, 2016. He frankly calls this “liberal bias.” Yet, Lee notes, Franklin & Marshall and its lead pollster are still taken seriously by the media and cited as nonpartisan experts. He thinks there should be professional consequences for pollsters who are so wildly inaccurate as to raise serious questions about their impartiality.
In a recent interview for WFMZ, Lee elaborated, saying, “When pollsters get the results back and they look suspicious, or they should, because they’re showing one candidate with a double-digit lead in a state that was carried by one candidate by, you know, a point or two, they should realize something’s not right and that’s where the art of polling comes in.” Lee calls attention to what he describes as “garbage polls” showing a double-digit lead for Joe Biden in the past few weeks in Pennsylvania. He sees this as a replay of 2016 and adds, “I called on the American Association of Public Opinion Research to crack down on egregious polling to tighten standards for firms that clearly don’t understand the landscape of Pennsylvania.” (According to the FiveThirtyEight survey of pollsters, Franklin & Marshall is more reliable than Susquehanna.)
The final Susquehanna poll of Pennsylvania in 2016 showed the race a statistical dead heat, with Hillary Clinton winning by two points, within the margin of error. Lee is blown away by polls showing wide leads for either candidate in certain states. “Do you think that’s voter suppression?” he asks. “I’m sticking up for the industry, we need to crack down, someone needs to say this is out of control. Just look at those RealClear averages.” Polls of likely voters released in the last week show a large lead for Biden in Pennsylvania — eight points per Quinnipiac, ten points per CNN. However, an October 25 poll by Insider Advantage gives Trump a two-point lead. It is the only poll published in the RealClearPolitics roundup since May showing Trump winning the duly named Keystone State. On average, Biden enjoys a 4.5 percent lead in Pennsylvania, according to RealClearPolitics.
Continue reading at the National Review.