Rogue Russia
As the Russian-Ukrainian war rages on a humiliated Russia will turn from a global player to a dangerous rouge state. Russia was careful to keep the war within the country in an attempt to avoid confrontation with NATO and held out hopes they would be able to divide support for Kyiv, in 2022. Though in 2023, the country can’t afford these actions again.
- Russia has little leverage left over either the United States or Europe.
- Russia won’t back down. Though Ukrainians will only accept a full Russian withdrawal, likely also including Crimea.
- Putin has little left to lose from further escalation. Though they will also intensify their offensive against Western elections by supporting and funding disinformation and extremism.
