Top Dem Pollsters Share Why They Got the 2020 Election So Wrong

A group of Democratic Party pollsters acknowledged “major errors” in their 2020 polling in an autopsy-like report discussing how they ended up wrong for the second presidential election in a row.

The firms, ALG Research, GBAO Strategies, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Global Strategy Group and Normington Petts, said that they “failed to live up to expectations” in the joint report, but offered no comprehensive answer as to why they overestimated Democratic margins ahead of Election Day. The groups did, however, offer possible reasons as to why its polling was so inaccurate.

The groups first cited their underestimation of voter turnout, especially among low-propensity voters.

“We found our models consistently overestimated Democratic turnout relative to Republican turnout in a specific way,” the report said. “Among low-propensity voters – people who we expect to vote rarely – the Republican share of the electorate exceeded expectations at four times the rate of the Democratic share.”

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