There are a few different ways to think about this year’s elections.
There are two scenarios that have relatively low probabilities but are about equally likely:
1) Democrats, relying on many new and low-propensity voters, have been consistently understated in polls and are poised to make historic gains in the House and Senate.
2) Republicans will repeat their 2016 performance with suburbanites and beat the polls by a narrow but consistent margin sufficient to barely hold the House and make considerable gains in the Senate.
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