Biiiiig caveat upfront: This comes from Public Policy Polling, a left-wing outfit, and was paid for by a group called, ahem, End Citizens United. Feel free to discount accordingly. Before you do, though, note that (a) Quinnipiac, a respected pollster, had Cruz ahead by a similar six points a few days ago, and (b) the last poll of the race commissioned by End Citizens United apparently had him at 50 percent. It’s not like the group’s data has been remorselessly favorable to O’Rourke.
Either way, the fate of the Senate will not turn on this race. Cruz will very likely win, but there’s no plausible scenario in which he gets upset while the rest of the GOP performs respectably nationwide. If Texas goes blue, it’s a coast-to-coast bloodbath. The only suspense will be the Democrats’ margin in the Senate.
Just a fluke? Not to the pros at Cook Political Report. They’re moving the race, which in most years would be “solid Republican,” from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Next stop: Toss-up.
O’Rourke has outraised Cruz this year and has nearly $5 million more in the bank than Cruz does. Benjy Sarlin poses an intriguing question: Are Cruz’s numbers soft because of lingering hard feelings towards him by Trump fans in Texas? There’s some reason to believe that Cruz himself is worried about it. His tweets lately calling on Facebook to un-ban Alex Jones and for prosecutors to take a look at James Gunn for his old social media postings seem aimed squarely at right-wing populists, exactly the type of people most likely to hold a grudge against him for not endorsing Trump at the convention in 2016.
Read more at Hot Air.