Election Analysts Move Ryan’s Soon-to-be Vacant Seat Towards Dems

Speaker Paul Ryan’s decision not to seek re-election shakes up the Republican leadership ladder in Washington and affects his party’s ability to hold his seat back home in Wisconsin.

While Ryan’s retirement is huge news because of his position, it’s not as electorally alarming to the GOP compared to the retirements of Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Florida’s 27th District or Rep. Dave Reichert in Washington’s 8th District. Both leave behind Democratic-leaning seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.

Wisconsin’s 1st is not a Toss-up race, but could still host a very competitive contest under the circumstances.

President Donald Trump took Ryan’s southeast Wisconsin district by 10 points in 2016, 52 percent to 42 percent. No statewide Democrat has carried the seat in a partisan race since at least 2008, according to Inside Elections data. The average Republican margin of victory in the 15 statewide races since, combined with Ryan’s re-elections, is 17 points.

Read more at Roll Call.