A year out from Election Day, eight of the top 10 most vulnerable House incumbents are Republicans. These are the members least likely to return to Congress in 2019.
Twenty-three Republicans sit in districts Hillary Clinton won last fall, but only four of them make the top 10. Two Democrats, both in districts President Donald Trump won, take two spots near the bottom. GOP strategists admit that if they can’t pass a tax overhaul, more Republicans will be in trouble because the party risks lower turnout from a disappointed base.
Democrats have historical trends on their side, and they’ve got energy — with a surge of candidates raising real money. But theirs is a tall order: They must gain 24 seats to win the majority. And the competitiveness of many of their targeted races will depend on which candidates emerge from potentially divisive primaries.
This is just a snapshot of the overall House landscape. Open seats, which include pickup opportunities for both parties, are not part of this ranking.
Read more at Roll Call.